There are over one hundred bible prophecies and promises that apply only to true physical Israel. Here is just one.
Isaiah 59:21 “As for me, this is my covenant with them, saith Yahweh; My spirit that is upon thee, and my words which I have put in thy mouth, shall not depart out of thy mouth, nor out of the mouth of thy seed, nor out of the mouth of thy seed’s seed, saith Yahweh, from henceforth and for ever.”
John 10:27 “My [Israel] sheep hear my voice, and I know them, and they follow me [now and always].”
The bible defines its own terms. In six verses the bible defines sheep as only true physical Israel. Also the Greek verb tense has the meaning of “now and always into the future”. Thus John 10:27 has the above meaning. In John 10:16 Christ mentioned another fold of sheep. Since sheep is defined as Israel another fold means more Israelites. Ephesians 2 tells us they were “far off” at the time of Christ. These of Israel are called Nations [incorrectly Gentiles] in scripture from the Ten Northern Tribes.
John 10:16 “And other sheep I have, which are not of this fold: them also I must bring, and they shall hear my voice; and there shall be one fold, and one shepherd.”
Use of the word “alienated” in reference to the Commonwealth of Israel in Ephesians 2:12 and “reconcile” in Ephesians 2:16 tells us that these of the other fold had at one time been a part of the Commonwealth of Israel, but were divorced by God due to their idolatry, Jeremiah 3:8. They were not without hope, but had a promise to be brought back in Hosea 1:10-11. This is shown fulfilled in Ephesians 2:11-22.